From the confinement of our homes and in the midst of the global health crisis as a result of the COVID-19 virus, it is difficult to maintain the critical distance that all analysis requires, and even more so, to make future predictions. The acceleration of history is currently of such magnitude that it overturns any foreseeable scenario in a matter of hours... Even so, let's try to glimpse how the world will change after this pandemic, and what trends will be dominant from now on in Asia and in our relationship with that continent.
To begin with, let us remember something that history shows us time and time again, but that now, without perspective, in the midst of quarantine, we tend to forget, and that is that after a crisis like the one we are experiencing, things are not usually very different, and at most, processes already underway are accelerated. In this case, I sense that it will not be any different and that unfortunately we will repeat some of the behaviors that have generated this pandemic. What can be seen are a series of general movements that will mark the future of the century. XXI and the way we understand international relations: Firstly, a shift in the axis of power will be accentuated from the West to Asia, something that was already evident, and that will make this last continent have increasing weight in the distribution of global power. In that sense, what some have called a The "Asianization" of international relations will inevitably lead to a loss of influence for the United States, and especially for Europe. This process will not be abrupt but it will be inexorable, and the most obvious example is how certain narratives have prevailed in global geopolitics over the Western narrative (see the case of China's macro-project of the Belt and Road Initiative). (One Belt One Road), or the questioning of the international system that emerged after World War II, especially at the economic level, something to which the current US Administration has contributed). The rules that have prevailed until now have extraordinarily favored the development of Asia in terms of trade and investment liberalization, or access to new markets and technologies, but sooner or later it will be necessary to create new frameworks that respond to the changes caused by the that the world is currently going through, especially the rise of Asia, and in this process the active participation of the continent, and in particular China, is expected due to the responsibility imposed on it by being a major global player.
Secondly, there may be a nationalist retreat after overcoming the epidemic, but after that initial reaction of self-protection, which is otherwise logical, initiatives that support multilateralism will intensify. This is what happened in 1945, after the war, with the creation of the United Nations, because, although it is a hackneyed phrase, the problems are increasingly global and as such require solutions that cannot come from a single State, and if these If they do not react in this sense, the pressure from citizens will become increasingly unbearable. Globalization, therefore, will be resisted at first, but will prevail naturally, maintaining the interconnected nature of our world.
COVID19 is a sad reminder of that interconnection: not only do people, goods and capital move freely; Viruses do the same, and therefore stricter measures will be necessary to prevent pandemics like this from recurring. Until now, the emphasis is being placed on how countries have managed the crisis, but later it will be inevitable to ask about its causes and how to contain another one with similar characteristics in the future, because it is no longer a public health issue of a nature. national, but of a global health threat that has It has caused numerous victims, has affected a large number of people, and will surely lead to an economic crisis of dimensions yet to be gauged. All of this legitimizes the entire international community to demand that certain measures be taken and certain practices that are at the origin of this pandemic be prohibited. For this reason, it is likely that countries like China will see their leadership questioned for having been, apparently, the focus of the pandemic, and for the lack of transparency that in the opinion of some experts it showed in its management, at least initially. The spread of the virus is a collective responsibility and no one should be blamed, but it is a fact that on the Asian continent, with the exception of Ebola, three of the last four global health crises have occurred, such as SARS, the bird flu and now the coronavirus. The involvement of the continent in preventing new pandemics will be fundamental, and not only with more or less propaganda gestures, but with phytosanitary measures and the creation of an alert network against viruses that present a high risk of contagion. and may extend to third countries.
Finally, from an economic point of view, COVID-19 will have a profound effect in Asia, especially in China, where, according to data from the World Bank, it is estimated that economic growth will not exceed 2020% in 2.3 and in the worst case 0.1, compared to 6.1 last year. In the rest of the continent, it is expected that growth could contract between 2.8 and 1.3%, and would be very far from the 4.7 achieved in 2019. In terms of poverty reduction, we will also suffer a setback, since 24 million fewer people will be able to escape poverty in Asia in 2020 as a result of COVID19. For all these reasons, it is likely that trade tensions between China and the United States, although they continue, will relax, because otherwise they will harm the much-needed economic recovery. Between both countries they account for more than 40% of the world's GDP, so that Any new trade confrontation will have a severe effect on the global economy. It is not to be expected, however, that the tension will disappear because it goes beyond a mere commercial conflict to become a systemic rivalry, but it is foreseeable to bet on aa greater relaxation of tension on specific issues as a lever to overcome, from a collaborative perspective, the low economic growth rates or even negative growth that are looming.
Some experts have already called the century XXI the century of Asia, and I think that the epithet is not misplaced. The sooner we realize that the century XIX was the European century, the XX the American and the XXI It is called to be, with nuances, in a multipolar world, the Asian one before we understand where we are heading.
Javier Parrondo, Director-General of Casa Asia @jparrondob
